“Fiscal cliff” hopes lift Asian shares, other risk assets

TOKYO (Reuters) – Asian shares and other risk assets rose on Tuesday as signs of compromise sparked new optimism that the U.S. “fiscal cliff” budget tussle could be settled before tax hikes and spending cuts begin to bite early next year.

Differences over how to resolve the fiscal cliff narrowed significantly Monday night as President Barack Obama made a counter-offer to Republicans that included a major change in position on tax hikes for the wealthy, according to a source familiar with the talks.

The move, which the source stressed was not Obama’s final offer, was welcomed by a spokesman for Republican House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, potentially advancing negotiations towards a deal by the end-year deadline.

Oil, copper and gold also firmed on the prospect of progress in the U.S. budget talks, which reduced worries about economic damage, but expectations of more monetary easing in Japan kept the yen soft.

“The market will view any advance in talks as positive for confidence, which has been battered by the daily flow of political fighting,” Ben Taylor, sales trader at CMC Markets said in a report.

“Regardless of what is decided, the market is looking for a decision and any compromise will help provide a clearer picture for the future.”

European shares were expected to keep up the positive momentum, with financial spreadbetters predicting London’s FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris’s CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt’s DAX <.gdaxi> will open as much as 0.5 percent higher. A 0.3 percent gain in U.S. stock futures suggested a higher Wall Street opening. <.l><.eu><.n></.n></.eu></.l></.gdaxi></.fchi></.ftse>

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> was up 0.2 percent, following a rise in global shares on Monday. The index snapped an eight-day winning streak on Monday as investors took profits from last week’s rally.</.miapj0000pus>

Regional equities also took direction from local factors.

Australian shares <.axjo> gained 0.5 percent to a 17-month high, with resource stocks elevated by a rise in iron ore prices <.io62-cni> to a five-month high.</.io62-cni></.axjo>

“Iron ore is a very key commodity in the Chinese industrial machine, steel usage will bounce back and that is good news for our exporters,” said Baillieu Holst director Richard Morrow.

Seoul shares <.ks11> rose marginally but underperformed some others in Asia, as investors were reluctant to build positions ahead of South Korea’s presidential vote on Wednesday.</.ks11>

London copper was up 0.3 percent to $ 8,085 a metric ton (1.1023 tons).

“Before the end of the year, I don’t really see huge selling pressure, with improving data from China and expectations for a resolution to the fiscal cliff,” said analyst Bonnie Liu of Macquarie.

U.S. crude surged 0.8 percent to $ 87.85 a barrel and Brent rose 0.7 percent to $ 108.41.

Spot gold added 0.3 percent to $ 1,702.01 an ounce.

Solid performance in stocks boosted Asian credit markets, narrowing the spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index by two basis points.

JAPAN POLITICS MATTER

In Japan, the Nikkei average <.n225> closed up 1.0 percent at an 8-1/2-month high and edged closer to the key 10,000-mark, with sentiment bolstered by a landslide election win for the conservative Liberal Democratic Party on Sunday. <.t></.t></.n225>

LDP leader Shinzo Abe, due to be confirmed as Japan’s premier on December 26, is calling for far more aggressive monetary stimulus and huge public works spending to rescue Japan from decades-long deflation. His pledges are seen as pressuring the yen and supporting Japanese stocks by improving earnings for the country’s exporters.

“The Nikkei is up today primarily due to the rise in U.S. stocks overnight, but the ‘Abe-effect’ is surprisingly longer-lasting as investors seem to be postponing the timing of unwinding their positions until they see the details and specifics in policies,” said Ayako Sera, market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.

The dollar inched up 0.1 percent to 83.96 yen, off a 20-month high of 84.48 yen hit on Monday but well above its late New York levels on Friday.

Abe applied fresh pressure on the Bank of Japan on Monday, saying that the election result reflected strong public support for his views, which he hoped the BOJ would take into account at its two-day policy meeting starting on Wednesday.

“The dollar has more upside against the yen ahead of the BOJ’s meeting, with expectations for some additional easing steps being strengthened after Abe’s comments yesterday,” said Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole in Tokyo.

“The corrective fall in the dollar/yen after the election was small and it’s crawling up because the yen weakening trend is still intact. But after the BOJ meeting, there will likely be pre-holiday profit-taking, pushing the dollar/yen down by 1 to 2 yen,” Saito said, adding that the dollar could temporarily touch 85 yen before profit-taking sets in by year-end.

Concerns that big-scale fiscal stimulus could seriously increase the country’s debt burden pushed the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield to a one-month high of 0.750 percent.

U.S. Treasury yields also inched up in Asia, with the 10-year yields briefly reaching 1.796 percent, its highest level since October 26, on hopes for a deal on the U.S. fiscal cliff. [US/T

(Additional reporting by Victoria Thieberger in Melbourne and Manash Goswami and Melanie Burton in Singapore; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

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Iran media: Son of ex-president released on bail

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iranian media say the son of influential former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has been released on bail.

Several papers, including the pro-reform Etemad daily, say Mahdi Hashemi was released late Sunday and immediately went to his father’s home.

Authorities arrested the younger Hashemi in late September, a day after he returned to Iran from Britain.

He is held on charges of fomenting unrest in the aftermath of Iran’s disputed 2009 presidential election that brought President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a second term in office. Hashemi also faced corruption charges.

His arrest came days after his sister, Faezeh, was taken into custody to serve a six-month sentence on charges of making propaganda against Iran’s ruling system.

Since Rafsanjani backed Ahmadinejad’s reformist challenger in 2009, his family has come under pressure from hardliners.

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iPad shipments could reach 100 million in 2013

Apple (AAPL) sold 42.8 million iPad tablets into channels through the first three quarters of 2012 and the most recent estimates suggest the company could ship 26 million more iPads during the holiday quarter. If Apple does manage to hit that record, total iPad shipments on the year would reach 68.8 million units. As impressive as that would be, however, DisplaySearch analyst David Hsieh thinks 2013 iPad sales could climb as high as 100 million units as iPad mini demand explodes.

[More from BGR: Has the iPhone peaked? Apple’s iPhone 4S seen outselling iPhone 5]

In 2012, Hsieh estimates that 9.7-inch iPad panel shipments — that is, shipments of iPad displays from suppliers to Apple’s manufacturing partners —  will have totaled 70 million units, including 23 million iPad 2 displays and 47 million third- and fourth-generation iPad panels. He also believes Apple’s suppliers will ship 13.6 million iPad mini displays by the end of the year.

[More from BGR: Sony’s PlayStation 4 could lose to the next Xbox before it’s even released]

Next year, however, the analyst sees Apple hitting a major milestone.

“In 2013, it is likely that Apple will adjust its product portfolio to meet the strong demand for the iPad mini,” Hsieh wrote in a post on DisplaySearch’s blog. ”We believe that Apple is targeting total iPad shipments of 100 million in 2013, half accounted for by the iPad mini, and 40 million new iPad and 10 million iPad 2, as production continues at least until the middle of 2013.”

DisplaySearch estimates that more than 170 million tablets will ship in 2013 and Apple’s iPad will account for 60% of the market.

This article was originally published by BGR

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Switzerland sends Salvation Army to Eurovision gig

GENEVA (AP) — Switzerland is putting its faith in the Salvation Army to win the Eurovision Song Contest when it is staged in Malmo, Sweden, next year.

Television viewers chose one of the Christian missionary group‘s Swiss chapters, whose bass player is 94 years old, from among five national finalists late Saturday.

The Eurovision contest is a kitschy fixture on the European cultural calendar watched by more than 100 million people across the world.

Viewers and juries pick the winner from an eclectic mix of bubblegum pop and rock acts representing each European country.

Political songs are forbidden and Swiss media have speculated that the Salvation Army’s Christian aims might still fall afoul of the rules.

Switzerland hasn’t won the contest since Canadian singer Celine Dion represented the country in 1988.

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Keep thimerosal in vaccines: pediatricians

NEW YORK (Reuters Health) – A mercury-containing preservative should not be banned as an ingredient in vaccines, U.S. pediatricians said Monday, in a move that may be controversial.

In its statement, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) endorsed calls from a World Health Organization (WHO) committee that the preservative, thimerosal, not be considered a hazardous source of mercury that could be banned by the United Nations.

Back in 1999, a concern that kids receiving multiple shots containing thimerosal might get too much mercury – and develop autism or other neurodevelopmental problems as a result – led the AAP to call for its removal, despite the lack of hard evidence at the time.

“It was absolutely a matter of precaution because of the absence of more information,” said Dr. Louis Cooper, from Columbia University in New York, who was on the organization’s board of directors at the time.

“Subsequently an awful lot of effort has been put into trying to sort out whether thimerosal causes any harm to kids, and the bottom line is basically, it doesn’t look as if it does,” Cooper, who wrote a commentary published with the AAP’s statement, told Reuters Health.

In a 2004 safety review, for example, the independent U.S. Institute of Medicine concluded there was no evidence thimerosal-containing vaccines could cause autism. A study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention came to the same conclusion in 2010.

With the exception of some types of flu shots, the compound is not used in vaccines in the United States, which are distributed in single-dose vials.

And nobody is arguing that should change, according to Dr. Walter Orenstein, a member of the AAP Committee on Infectious Diseases and a researcher at the Emory Vaccine Center in Atlanta.

But in countries with fewer resources – where many children still die of vaccine-preventable diseases – it’s cheaper and easier to use multi-dose vials of vaccines against diphtheria and tetanus, for example.

Thimerosal prevents the rest of a multi-dose vial from getting contaminated with bacteria or fungi each time a dose is used.

Researchers estimated it could cost anywhere from two to five times as much to manufacture vaccines for developing countries without thimerosal, and both transporting vaccines and keeping them refrigerated would be much harder as well.

“If we had to take the thimerosal out of those multi-dose vials, we’re having a hard time completing the task of getting every kid immunized now, that would add a tremendous burden,” Cooper said – and more children would probably die as a result.

“Children who can now be protected from these life-threatening diseases could become vulnerable,” Orenstein told Reuters Health.

The new statement is published in the AAP’s journal Pediatrics.

Thimerosal contains a type of mercury called ethyl mercury. Toxic effects have been tied to its cousin, methyl mercury, which stays in the body for much longer.

Earlier this year, the WHO said replacing thimerosal with an alternative preservative could affect vaccine safety and might cause some vaccines to become unavailable.

Mercury, however, is still on the list of global health hazards to be banned in a draft treaty from the United Nations Environment Program – which would mean a ban on thimerosal.

Reducing mercury exposure “is a wonderful thing,” Orenstein said.

However, “We need this exception because thimerosal is so vital for protecting children.”

He said keeping thimerosal in vaccines is essential mostly for humanitarian reasons – although preventing childhood diseases in the developing world could also help the U.S. because other countries can serve as reservoirs for illness.

“For American parents, this is more looking at the world and our role and responsibility in protecting the children of the world than it is a direct impact,” Orenstein said.

SOURCE: http://bit.ly/cxXOG Pediatrics, online December 17, 2012.

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Analysis: Huge mandate for Japan’s LDP may be less than meets the eye

TOKYO (Reuters) – Even Japan‘s next prime minister, Shinzo Abe, realizes that his party’s landslide election victory is not the sweeping mandate that it appears at first blush.

An analysis of the vote as well as Abe’s own comments suggests he would be best served by focusing on what matters most to voters – the economy – and steering clear of divisive issues such as revising Japan’s pacifist constitution.

That said, aggressive moves by China in a territorial row over tiny islands in the East China Sea could act to bolster support for Abe’s tough-talking stance toward its giant rival.

Three years after a crushing defeat, Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) surged back to win 294 seats in Sunday’s vote for the 480-member lower house.

Together with a smaller ally, the New Komeito party, the LDP also took a two-thirds ‘super majority‘ that could help break Japan’s persistent policy deadlock in parliament.

The ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), in comparison, managed a mere 57 seats – less than a fifth of its showing when it swept into power for the first time in a historic 2009 vote.

Abe himself, however, admitted the victory was more a rejection of the novice Democrats’ messy reign than a vote of confidence for the LDP, which ruled Japan for most of the past half-century before its ouster three years ago.

“Our victory this time does not mean trust in the Liberal Democratic Party has been completely restored. Rather, it was a decision by the public that they should put an end to the political stagnation and confusion over the past three years, caused by the Democratic Party‘s misguided political leadership,” Abe told a news conference on Monday.

“We must move forward and achieve results.”

Japanese voters have been on a roller coaster of hopes and disappointment for the past decade since charismatic leader Junichiro Koizumi took office in 2001 pledging bold reforms.

Lured by Koizumi’s promises, voters handed the LDP a massive victory in 2005 only to kick out the long-ruling party four years later in hopes that the Democrats would do a better job.

In a sign that both enthusiasm and expectations are fading, turnout on Sunday was a record low 59 percent, according to a Kyodo news agency estimate.

Nor did the LDP win a majority of votes from those who did cast their ballots. The main opposition party won about 43 percent of the vote in the single-seat constituencies that supply 300 of the chamber’s seats, but a first-past-the post system and split votes amongst a clutch of new, small parties meant that the party secured 79 percent of those seats.

JULY ELECTION HURDLE

In the proportional representation blocks that provide the other 180 seats, the LDP won about 28 percent of the votes compared to 16 percent for the DPJ, while the new right-leaning Japan Restoration Party took 20 percent, media estimates showed.

“It’s clear that only 30 percent or less of voters solidly support the LDP. Unless Abe is careful, his cabinet support will go down to that level very quickly and even with a two-thirds majority, he would be in trouble,” said Sophia University political science professor Koichi Nakano.

Abe, who quit in 2007 after a troubled year in office, will have to persuade voters quickly that they made the right choice ahead of an election for parliament’s upper chamber in July.

Although the LDP-New Komeito “super majority” will allow the lower house to enact bills rejected by the upper chamber, doing so is a time-consuming and cumbersome process, so the new government will be keen to win a majority in July’s poll.

“He’s preparing for the next election and understands that what he does in the first few months will have a big impact and voters are most interested in the economy,” said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian studies at Temple University’s Japan campus.

Abe has vowed to rescue Japan from its fourth recession since 2000, end deflation and tame the strong yen with a recipe of hyper-easy monetary policy and big spending on public works.

Equally central to his agenda, however, is a push to shed the shackles of Japan’s post-war pacifism by revising the U.S.-drafted constitution and rewriting wartime history with a less apologetic tinge.

Changing the charter – never altered since its adoption in 1947 – requires approval by two-thirds of both houses of parliament and a majority of voters in a national referendum.

Straw polls of voters suggest that the economy tops the list of public priorities and LDP ally New Komeito is not keen on revising the constitution’s pacifist Article 9.

But a strong showing by the nationalist Japan Restoration Party in the election also indicates simmering support for a tough stance towards China as well as hope for a decisive leader to restore Japan’s flagging self-respect.

That could grow if Beijing steps up its activities in waters and airspace near the disputed islands, known as the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China.

Last week, a Chinese government plane entered what Japan considers its airspace over the islets in the East China Sea, prompting Japanese fighters to scramble and escalating tension in the row between Asia’s two biggest economies.

“This has not been a strong mandate for Abe in foreign policy or security matters,” said Narushige Michishita, an associate professor at the National Institute for Policy Studies. “But if China continues to provoke us as they did several days ago, that might change.”

(Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)

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Nigeria governor, 5 others die in helicopter crash

LAGOS, Nigeria (AP) — A navy helicopter crashed Saturday in the country’s oil-rich southern delta, killing a state governor and five other people, in the latest air disaster to hit Africa’s most populous nation, officials said.

Nigeria‘s ruling party said in a statement that the governor of the central Nigerian state of Kaduna, Patrick Yakowa, died in the helicopter crash in Bayelsa state in the Niger Delta. The People’s Democratic Party’s statement described Yakowa’s death as a “colossal loss.”

The statement said the former national security adviser, General Andrew Azazi, also died in the crash. Azazi was fired in June amid growing sectarian violence in Nigeria, but maintained close ties with the government.

Yushau Shuaib, a spokesman for Nigeria’s National Emergency Management Agency, said four other bodies had been found, but he could not immediately give their identities.

The crash occurred at about 3:30 p.m. after the navy helicopter took off from the village of Okoroba in Bayelsa state where officials had gathered to attend the burial of the father of a presidential aide, said Commodore Kabir Aliyu. He said that the helicopter was headed for Nigeria’s oil capital of Port Harcourt when it crashed in the Nembe area of Bayelsa state.

Aviation disasters remain common in Nigeria, despite efforts in recent years to improve air safety.

In October, a plane made a crash landing in central Nigeria. A state governor and five others sustained injuries but survived.

In June, a Dana Air MD-83 passenger plane crashed into a neighborhood in the commercial capital of Lagos, killing 153 people onboard and at least 10 people on the ground. It was Nigeria’s worst air crash in nearly two decades.

In March, a police helicopter carrying a high-ranking police official crashed in the central Nigerian city of Jos, killing four people.

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U.S. gun website sued for alleged ties to slayings

CHICAGO (Reuters) – A prominent U.S. gun control group on Wednesday sued a gun auction website it says is linked to a mass shooting at a Wisconsin spa in October and the stalker slaying of a woman near Chicago in 2011.

The Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence alleges that the design of armslist.com facilitates illegal online sales to unlawful gun buyers with no background checks, and enables users to evade laws that permit private sellers to sell guns only to residents of their own state.

“We as a nation are better than an anonymous Internet gun market where killers and criminals can easily get guns,” said Jonathan Lowy, the Brady Center’s Legal Action Project Director, in a statement.

The wrongful death lawsuit was filed in Cook County Circuit Court on behalf of the family of Jitka Vesel, 36, an immigrant from the Czech Republic who was shot and killed last year by Demetry Smirnov, a stalker.

The suit, which the Brady Center says is the first of its kind, alleges that Smirnov illegally bought the gun from a private seller he located through armslist.com.

Vesel was killed in the parking lot of the Chicago-area Czechoslovak Heritage Museum, where she was a volunteer preparing for a celebration in memory of Czech-American Chicago Mayor Anton Cermak.

Cermak was slain with a handgun during an attempted assassination of President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933.

A representative for website owner Armslist, LLC was not immediately available for comment. The company is based in Noble, Oklahoma, according to public records.

The website includes a “terms of use” page on which users must promise they are age 18 or older and will not use the site for illegal purposes.

The Brady Center said that the case does not infringe on the Second Amendment right to bear arms, noting that 74 percent of National Rifle Association members believe that no guns should be sold without a criminal background check.

A representative for the NRA was not immediately available for comment.

Radcliffe Haughton, who killed his estranged wife and two other women and wounded four others before killing himself in a shooting in a Milwaukee suburb on October 21, also got his weapon through armslist.com, according to Wisconsin officials.

Haughton, who was under a restraining order for domestic violence, avoided a background check through a “lethal loophole” by buying a gun through the website, according to a letter to Armslist sent by Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and Wisconsin U.S. Representative Gwen Moore on October 26.

Sales conducted over the Internet also have been linked to mass killings at Virginia Tech and Northern Illinois University. In 1999 eBay announced it was prohibiting online gun sales, according to the Brady Center lawsuit.

Craigslist did the same in 2007. Amazon.com and Google AdWords also prohibits the listing of firearms for sale, the suit says.

An undercover investigation of online gun sales by New York City last year found that 62 percent of private gun sellers agreed to sell a firearm to a buyer who said he probably could not pass a background check.

(Reporting By Mary Wisniewski; Editing by Greg McCune and Xavier Briand)

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A children’s choir opens ‘SNL’ with ‘Silent Night’

NEW YORK (AP) — “Saturday Night Live” made a rare departure from its comedic opening to pay tribute to the children and adults killed at a Connecticut elementary school.

Not known for treating anything seriously or tenderly, the show made a fitting exception during the first moments of its show Saturday. Rather than the usual comedic sketch, a children’s choir appeared on camera and angelically sang “Silent Night,” with the touching refrain, “Sleep in heavenly peace.”

Then the members of the New York City Children’s Chorus shouted out the NBC show’s time-honored introduction: “Live from New York, it’s ‘Saturday Night!’”

It was the night’s sole reference to the tragedy and struck just the right tone.

Later, the chorus returned to join musical guest Paul McCartney in a rendition of his “Wonderful Christmas Time.”

Appearing in a sketch in an unbilled cameo, actor Samuel L. Jackson made a distinctive contribution of his own.

Pretending to be miffed at getting interrupted as a guest on the mock talk show “What Up with That?” Jackson said what sounded very much like an F-bomb, followed by the term sometimes shortened to “B.S.”

Playing the host of “What Up with That?” Kenan Thompson looked startled by Jackson’s vulgarities but kept going.

“C’mon, Sam. That costs money!” he quipped, cracking up the studio audience.

Moments after the show ended, Jackson tried to explain in a Twitter posting.

“I only said FUH,” he insisted, adding that Thompson was supposed to cut him off with his second eruption, but “blew it!!”

Jackson’s tweet was accompanied by a photo of himself looking mortified.

Besides Jackson, some of the stars dropping by for this special Christmas “SNL” included Alec Baldwin, Tom Hanks, Kristen Wiig, Jimmy Fallon and Tina Fey. The guest host was Martin Short.

___

Online: www.nbc.com

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Absent Chavez dominates Venezuelan state elections

CARACAS (Reuters) – Venezuelans vote on Sunday in state elections that will define the future of opposition leader Henrique Capriles and test political forces ahead of a possible new presidential vote if Hugo Chavez is incapacitated by cancer.

The vote for 23 state governorships, of which the opposition controls seven, has been overshadowed by the president’s battle to recover from cancer surgery in Cuba.

Yet it will have major implications for the unfolding political drama in the South American OPEC nation with the world’s largest oil reserves.

Capriles, 40, must retain the governorship of Miranda if he is to remain the opposition’s presidential candidate-in-waiting, while both sides will want a good showing to create momentum in case of a new showdown over who replaces Chavez.

“This is the best indication of how well the opposition will fare in an upcoming contest for the presidency between Henrique Capriles and designated Chavez dauphin Vice President Nicolas Maduro,” said Russell Dallen of Caracas-based BBO Financial Services.

Whatever the private machinations going on, in public Maduro and other senior officials are focused only on Chavez’s recovery after complications from Tuesday’s operation in Havana.

It was a fourth surgery for the socialist leader since he was diagnosed with cancer in the pelvic region in mid-2011.

After re-election in October, Chavez, 58, is due to start a new term on January 10, but has named Maduro as his preferred successor should he be incapacitated.

That would trigger a new presidential poll within 30 days.

In its latest update, the government said Chavez had spoken to his family on Friday – possibly for the first time since surgery – and was recovering “satisfactorily” though slowly.

Few medical details have been released, so speculation is rife that Chavez may be in a life-threatening situation in Havana’s Cimeq hospital with both a difficult post-operation recovery and a possible spreading of the cancer.

EMOTIONAL BACKDROP

In such a charged atmosphere, campaigning for Sunday’s vote has taken a backseat to Catholic masses, prayer meetings and vigils across the nation for Chavez.

Maduro has wept in public, state media are replaying images of Chavez round-the-clock, and various government candidates held closing rallies simply playing the president’s voice.

The sympathy factor could benefit Chavez’s candidates and offset the disadvantage of losing his charismatic presence on the campaign trail in advance.

“Without wishing to be triumphalist, we have big chances of winning the 23 governorships and that is the biggest support we can give Chavez,” said his brother Adan Chavez, who is seeking re-election in their hometown state of Barinas.

Still smarting from defeat in October, the opposition hopes voters will focus on grassroots issues and punish the government for power-cuts, pot-holed roads, corruption scandals, violent crime and runaway inflation.

“I put my life at the service of Miranda and Venezuela,” Capriles said in his closing rally. “I’m not here to stay in power but to make a dream (of national change) come true.”

Though widely expected to retain his Miranda seat, Capriles faces a well-financed challenge from senior Chavez ally Elias Jaua, a former vice president. If he defeats Capriles, it would leave the opposition in disarray and possibly spark in-fighting over who would be its next presidential candidate.

Two other opposition governors, Pablo Perez and Henri Falcon, are obvious possibilities. But first they too must retain their posts to maintain credibility, and they do not have the national recognition Capriles achieved during his unsuccessful run for the presidency in October.

Despite losing, he won the opposition’s largest share – 6.5 million votes, or 45 percent – against Chavez, and impressed Venezuelans with his energetic style, visits to the remotest corners, and attention to their day-to-day issues.

“In the unlikely event that Capriles loses, he would probably have no chance of running for the presidency again,” political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said.

The mid-December timing of the vote could count against the opposition, many of whose middle-class supporters often take advantage of school holidays to travel.

(Additional reporting by Marianna Parraga; Editing by Paul Simao)

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